The Financial Post reports in its Saturday, Feb. 28, edition that despite a stronger-than-expected 0.2-per-cent GDP growth in December, many economists doubt the Canadian economy will meet the Bank of Canada's growth estimates for 2026. The Post's Gigi Suhanic writes that Statistics Canada reported a 0.6-per-cent contraction in the fourth quarter, missing economists' predictions for a 0.2-per-cent decline. This marks the second quarterly drop in 2025 and raises concerns about the BOC's forecast of 1.8-per-cent annualized GDP growth for the first quarter.
BMO economist Douglas Porter said the fourth quarter decline was mainly due to a drop in business inventories.
Consumer spending grew 1.7 per cent, business investment rose by 2 per cent and exports increased by 6 per cent, indicating signs of resiliency.
But housing was also "weak" -- contracting 4.4 per cent -- although Mr. Porter said government spending, including on defence, more than "offset" that drop.
December's GDP growth of 0.2 per cent month over month beat Statistics Canada's earlier flash estimate of 0.1 per cent and combining that with a flash estimate for flat GDP in January is something of a win given the harsh winter weather, he said.
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