The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that the Bank of Canada is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time in three years on Wednesday to manage high oil prices and prevent broader inflation. The Globe's Mark Rendell writes that there is, however, notable uncertainty, as hawkish statements from the BOC contrast with recent data showing inflation is relatively contained. The BOC has kept the policy rate at 2.25 per cent since last October, balancing concerns over economic damage from the trade war and the global energy shock from the Iran war. As oil prices have once again rocketed higher in recent months, Governor Tiff Macklem has increasingly emphasized the upside inflation risk -- to the point financial markets now expect the bank to deliver its first rate hike since the end of the postpandemic tightening cycle in the summer of 2023. A rate hike, if it happens, will land at a delicate moment for the Canadian economy. CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld says: "A rate hike might be a fine decision if things go well in future trade talks and energy prices stay high. But it could prove to be a policy mistake if the trends go in the other direction for both oil prices and trade policy."