The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday, Oct. 18, edition that TD Cowen analyst Sean Steuart believes that the prolonged earnings trough for lumber-weighted equities is nearing its end. The Globe's David Leeder writes that Mr. Steuart, however, does not anticipate any relief during this earnings season. He says in a note: "Our Q3/24 adjusted EBITDA estimates are below consensus estimates for four of the eight companies [we follow]. We expect that weaker Q3/24 lumber prices were exacerbated by extensive sawmill production curtailments and associated unit cost pressure. In certain cases, we expect that inventory valuation provisions and retroactive duty reconciliation will undermine Q3/24 results. Our estimates for all lumber-focused equities are below consensus forecasts; Interfor to a lesser extent than Canfor, West Fraser Timber and Western Forest Products." Citing recent share price "strength," Mr. Steuart has reaffirmed his "buy" call for West Fraser Timber. His share target soared to $15 to $125 (all figures U.S.). Analysts on average target the shares at $104. The Globe reported on April 17 that Mr. Steuart called West Fraser one of his top picks. The shares could then be had for $78.
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