The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that Raymond James analyst Daryl Swetlishoff, believing "the next lumber cycle clashes with structurally reduced supply," has upgraded West Fraser Timber to "outperform" from "market perform," seeing "compelling upside." The Globe's David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. Swetlishoff hiked his share target to $85 (U.S.) from $75 (U.S.). Analyst on average target the shares at $82.53 (U.S.). Mr. Swetlishoff says in a note: "After four years of depressed U.S. housing and repair and reno activity, we submit that the supply side has finally done the heavy lifting to improve balance in North American lumber markets. Canadian shipments have fallen to record lows, capacity has (permanently) exited the system and European lumber imports have also fallen sharply. Despite cyclical and seasonal demand headwinds, 2Q26 results approached what we consider mid-cycle profitability ($100 EBITDA/mfbm) with our refreshed 3Q26 estimates not too far behind." Although the timing of a housing recovery is uncertain, Mr. Shreedhar says the next cycle will face a reduced production base, leading to higher lumber prices and greater earnings potential for key players.
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